http://www.wikio.co.uk/blog/search/Presidential Elections Wikio Blogs - search: Presidential Elections wikio wikio http://www.wikio.co.uk/info?id=68385601 Join leading hip-hop activists, scholars, and artists in a town hall style discussion of the impact of the hip-hop generation on the election. Wed, 20 Aug 2008 17:34:39 GMT http://www.wikio.co.uk/info?id=68385601 2008-08-20T17:34:39Z http://www.wikio.co.uk/info?id=68539263 CXO Advisory conducts a study that will surely cut to the heart of everything the Power Lunch crew holds sacred. Do presidential election polling data have any effect on stock returns? In other words, do investors act on the survey-indicated election prospects for the two major party candidates? Presumably, investors would tend to enter (exit) stocks if they thought the candidate with policies more (less) favorable for equity valuation were gaining ground. Using Gallup Daily polling data and contemporaneous daily closing levels of the S&P 500 index from June 6 (when the major party nominations solidified) through August 17 (49 trading days), we find that .....In summary, limited evidence indicates that daily presidential election polling data do not affect the aggregate trading behavior of equity investors. Now between the two paragraphs that I cut and pasted above, CXO runs through a whole mix of studies and scatter charts, deciphering whether a poll result has much effect over any time frame. And conclude that it's not too much. No study is perfect, but a flaw I would note in this is that a poll here and there does not necessarily tweak the consensus view of how the election will play out. The chart above without Tracy Flick shows the Intrade market, essentially the odds, of an Obama win. As you can see it has not moved much off 60% all month, a time stretch where McCain has ticked up in the polls. I'm not a complete "Wisdom of Crowds" disciple in that I find the political *markets* more a reflection on what we already know, than a particularly insightful prediction of what may happen. But regardless, it does serve as a good proxy for market expectations. In other words, to the extent the actual stock market cares about election results, it is presumably pricing in a 60% chance that Obama wins. So as imperfect as the trading market is, just wondering whether a study comparing it to the actual market is a better way to study this. Thu, 21 Aug 2008 17:51:00 GMT http://www.wikio.co.uk/info?id=68539263 Adam 2008-08-21T17:51:00Z http://www.wikio.co.uk/info?id=68494216 Presidential press service said this in the report. Thu, 21 Aug 2008 14:20:09 GMT http://www.wikio.co.uk/info?id=68494216 2008-08-21T14:20:09Z http://www.wikio.co.uk/info?id=68449894 . . . then you may find this amusing: Tales From The 57 States: John Wins in Shaman Rick's House Continued at website. Thu, 21 Aug 2008 06:45:34 GMT http://www.wikio.co.uk/info?id=68449894 Gina Cobb 2008-08-21T06:45:34Z http://www.wikio.co.uk/info?id=68427147 Thanks to Carrie Brownstein, I now know who should win the Presidential Election. Apparently, musical entertainment in Denver at the Democratic National Convention includes a Rage Against the Machine reunion, plus Cold War Kids, Silversun Pickups, Clap Your Hands Say... Thu, 21 Aug 2008 00:16:13 GMT http://www.wikio.co.uk/info?id=68427147 John Sarvay 2008-08-21T00:16:13Z http://www.wikio.co.uk/info?id=68402592 CHICAGO, Aug. 20 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- DePaul University, the largest Catholic university in the United States, has an array of experts available to provide context and insight on the presidential election, as well as the election-year political landscape. They also can discuss many issues emerging in the presidential race, including the economy, foreign and domestic policy, immigration, celebrity influence in politics, and potentially the first African-American president. Professors available to speak with reporters are: Molly Andolina, assistant professor of political science. Andolina is an expert on American government, political behavior, campaigns and elections, political socialization and culture, and public opinion. Her research fields include American civic engagement, generational politics (youth, GenX and the DotNet Generations) and youth activism. She can be reached at 773/325-4709 or . James E. Block, professor of political science. He is an expert on American political culture, American religion and politics. He wrote the book "A Nation of Agents: The American Path to a Modern Self and Society." Block can be reached at 773/325-1976 or by e-mail at . Mike Conklin, journalism instructor. Conklin, a former Chicago Tribune reporter, took some of his students to Iowa to cover the caucuses for some local Iowa newspapers. Several students worked at the Cedar Rapids Gazette, and others worked at the Marion Sentinel. Conklin and some of these students are available to comment on their experiences. Conklin can be reached at 773/325-8651 or . Zachary Cook, political science instructor. Cook can speak about American government and politics, media and politics, public opinion, state politics and statistics. He can be reached at 773/325-8679 or by e-mail at zcook@depaul.edu. Bruce Evensen, professor of communication. He can discuss public perception of the press and the political process, the link between press credibility and voter confidence, and Wed, 20 Aug 2008 19:43:00 GMT http://www.wikio.co.uk/info?id=68402592 2008-08-20T19:43:00Z http://www.wikio.co.uk/info?id=68564332 Presidential candidates John McCain and Barack Obama sat down for separate interviews with USA TODAY this week leading up to … Fri, 22 Aug 2008 02:31:41 GMT http://www.wikio.co.uk/info?id=68564332 2008-08-22T02:31:41Z http://www.wikio.co.uk/info?id=68499633 I make a big point on this blog of highlighting the importance of the fundamentals in determing the outcomes of presidential elections. Andrew Gelman has a nice graph illustrating how the fundamentals become more relevant as the election approaches (I've... Thu, 21 Aug 2008 14:18:14 GMT http://www.wikio.co.uk/info?id=68499633 Brendan Nyhan 2008-08-21T14:18:14Z http://www.wikio.co.uk/info?id=68211878 crisis states research centre Joe Hanlon, Sean Fox The 2004 Presidential Election in Mozambique was marred by allegations of fraud. While the overall election result was unaffected by the fraud, our analysis demonstrates a method of assessing allegations of misconduct and points to areas of concern for those managing or observing future elections in Mozambique and elsewhere. Tue, 19 Aug 2008 04:08:00 GMT http://www.wikio.co.uk/info?id=68211878 Bosse H 2008-08-19T04:08:00Z http://www.wikio.co.uk/info?id=68529905 Mom, Can My Voting Machine Spend the Night? - The Lede - Breaking News - New York Times Blog what have election officials in some precincts of the state been doing to keep their voting machines safe from tampering? Taking the machines home with them and stashing them in their garages in the days before a big election. If it sounds like something pulled straight out of an episode of Saturday Night Live, or Borat for that matter, it’s not. The practice has become so widespread that it even has a nickname, “sleepovers.” Ohio, you may remember, has plenty of reason to be particularly vigilant about the security of its voting machines. The state has been a frequent battleground not only for presidential candidates, but also for lawyers and party representatives who have tangled over accusations of election fraud and concerns about paperless voting machines that incorporate new technology. After the 2004 presidential election, in which Ohio narrowly went to President Bush, some inspectors said they found signs of tampering in a number of precincts throughout the state. Thu, 21 Aug 2008 18:22:40 GMT http://www.wikio.co.uk/info?id=68529905 Alan Benard for Poor Mojo's Newswire 2008-08-21T18:22:40Z http://www.wikio.co.uk/info?id=68517480 Clean energy is a lot like motherhood, apple pie, and left-handed pitchers with control: Who could possibly be against it? The rub: Most people want cheap energy, too. Sen. Barack Obama (AP) That, in a nutshell, is the challenge that's going to be waiting for whoever wins the presidential election this November: Clean [...] Thu, 21 Aug 2008 17:31:48 GMT http://www.wikio.co.uk/info?id=68517480 Keith Johnson 2008-08-21T17:31:48Z http://www.wikio.co.uk/info?id=68499564 Scarlett Johansson is said to have pushed back her wedding date – because of the US presidential election. The actress, 23, is due to marry fiancé Ryan Reynolds, 31, later this year. But she's apparently put the plans on hold because her twin brother Hunter is busy working on Barack Obama's campaign. ‘Ryan has been wanting to marry Scarlett for some time and was thrilled when they got engaged in May,’ a source tells the Daily Express. ‘He’d marry her if he could tomorrow if he could but Scarlett’s twin Hunter is really busy working on Barack Obama’s presidential campaign. 'He’s working all the time so Scarlett wants to hold off until the election is over.’ Barack, 47, is taking on Senator John McCain in the election in November. Photo and Source Thu, 21 Aug 2008 14:10:00 GMT http://www.wikio.co.uk/info?id=68499564 Angelina Star 2008-08-21T14:10:00Z http://www.wikio.co.uk/info?id=68264232 The 2000 presidential election propelled America's problems with our elections into the national spotlight in an unprecedented way. Americans, night after night, watched news stories exposing the many problems that are routine in elections but that receive little attention: confusing ballots that lead people to mark their vote for the wrong candidate, voter suppression aimed at minorities through voter registration purges, and weary election officials trying to discern voters’ intent on ambiguously marked punch card ballots. In response the federal government passed the Help America Vote Act which funded wholesale changes in how Americans cast their ballots, most visibly by increasing the use of electronic voting machines. Reacting to the problems caused by electronic or so-called “black box” voting, a grassroots movement of citizens and legislative leaders across the country have been steadfast in their pursuit of secure and transparent voting systems. In cooperation with election reform organizations and prominent computer scientists, they have mounted a series of local and national campaigns that are steadily changing the debate on election integrity and changing the way people vote. This Stateside Dispatch will highlight how state leaders have sought to protect ballot integrity, create post-election audits that work to protect voters rights, and have fought the privatization of elections into the hands of potentially partisan and often incompetent corporations. Tue, 19 Aug 2008 20:42:41 GMT http://www.wikio.co.uk/info?id=68264232 2008-08-19T20:42:41Z http://www.wikio.co.uk/info?id=68235880 She announced this at a press conference. Tue, 19 Aug 2008 14:25:54 GMT http://www.wikio.co.uk/info?id=68235880 2008-08-19T14:25:54Z http://www.wikio.co.uk/info?id=68307960 (Bryan Fischer) - It is a political fact of life that evangelicals play a determinative role in presidential elections. The 36% of evangelicals who voted for Bill Clinton in 1992 and the 38% of them who voted for Clinton in 1996 handed the White House for eight years over to an administration which aggressively promoted abortion rights and the homosexual agenda... Wed, 20 Aug 2008 03:32:16 GMT http://www.wikio.co.uk/info?id=68307960 Bryan Fischer 2008-08-20T03:32:16Z